مدل سازی الگوی مصرف انرژی و تحلیل حساسیت نهاده ها در تولید گندم آبی، مطالعه موردی: استان اردبیل

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 بخش تحقیقات فنی و مهندسی، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی استان اردبیل (مغان)، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، اردبیل، ایران

2 موسسه تحقیقات فنی و مهندسی کشاورزی، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، کرج، ایران

چکیده

چکیده
این تحقیق برای بررسی الگوی مصرف انرژی و تحلیل حساسیت نهاده­ ها در تولید گندم آبی استان اردبیل انجام گرفت. جامعه آماری شامل 100 کشاورز آبی کار محصول گندم بود که بر اساس نمونه ­های تصادفی انتخاب شدند. حساسیت نهاده‌های انرژی به کمک تابع تولید کاب داگلاس و با استفاده از روش بهره‏ وری فیزیکی نهایی (MPP)  و ضرایب رگرسیون با مشتقات جزئی بر عملکرد گندم برآورد شد. نتایج نشان داد کل انرژی ورودی و خروجی به‌ترتیب MJ ha-1 34/38755 و 07/65016 بوده و در بین نهاده‌های ورودی انرژی کود نیتروژن و سوخت دیزل به ­ترتیب با 38/37% و 03/19% بیشترین سهم را داشتند. بهره‌وری انرژی برابر با  kg MJ-1116/0 ، کارایی انرژی و نرخ  بازگشت به مقیاس نیز  به ­ترتیب 67/1 و 608/0 برآورد گردید. تحلیل حساسیت نشان داد مقدار MPP  بین 23/0- تا 809/1 متغیر بود. در این میان ماشین‌های کشاورزی بیشترین مقدار MPP و پس‌ازآن سموم شیمیایی، کود شیمایی و الکتریسیته به ترتیب با 34/0، 07/0 و 023/0 قرار داشتند که نشان‌دهنده استفاده بیشتر از این نهاده­ ها در تولید گندم است که سبب آلودگی منابع طبیعی و غیر ارگانیک شدن محصولات کشاورزی مانند گندم می ­شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Energy Consumption Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis of Energy Inputs for Irrigated Wheat Production; Case Study: Ardabil Province

نویسندگان [English]

  • Jabraeil Taghinazhad 1
  • Adel Vahedi 2
1 1- Department of Agricultural Engineering Research, Ardabil Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, AREEO, Ardabil, Iran
2 Department of Agricultural Engineering Research, AREEO, Karaj, Iran
چکیده [English]

Abstract
This study was carried out to evaluate the energy consumption pattern and analysis of economic indices to determine the input sensitivity for wheat the production system in Ardabil, Iran. Data were collected from 100 irrigated wheat farms selected during 2017-2018 using a random sampling method. The sensitivity of the energy inputs was estimated using the marginal physical productivity (MPP) method and partial regression coefficients on wheat yield. The results indicated that the total energy input was 38755.34 MJ ha-1, of which approximately 37.38% and 19.04% were from nitrogen fertilizers and diesel fuel, respectively. Approximately, 39.85% of the total energy inputs consumed in wheat production was direct energy, while the remaining 60.07% was indirect. The econometric assessment results revealed that the energy inputs from machinery had a significant influence on the yield. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the MPP value for energy inputs was between -0.23 and 1.67. Also, the MPP value for was the highest, followed by machinery, diesel fuel, chemical fertilizers and chemical sprays energy inputs, respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Keywords: Cobb–douglas Production function
  • Energy consumption pattern
  • Sensitivity analysis
  • Wheat Yield
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